博鼇論壇研究院詳解疫情影響:房地產行業風險加大
2020年03月04日08:13

  雙語|博鼇亞洲論壇研究院舉行研討會 詳解疫情對中國經濟及全球供應鏈的影響

  來源: 博鼇亞洲論壇

  2月28日上午,博鼇亞洲論壇研究院在京舉行《疫情防控與經濟發展》遠程研討會。來自國際組織、發起國使館、理事谘委、會員、合作夥伴、媒體合作夥伴的80多位代表,通過視頻會議的形式出席研討會。17位身處經濟、生產和疫情防控一線的企業家、經濟學家、媒體主編,就疫情對經濟的影響、疫情防控與經濟發展如何統籌兼顧、哪些新技術新業態可以發揮重要作用等重點發言。

  嘉賓們認為,疫情在中國國內已經得到初步有效控製,復工復產有序進行;疫情不會改變中國經濟長期向好的勢頭,對農業、服務業、製造業的影響是短期的、暫時的。政府應採取及時、積極、有效的財政和貨幣政策,把穩就業放在優先位置,通過減稅、讓利、補助、社保緩繳和定向精準的貨幣政策,幫助受影響的企業、尤其是中小微企業度過難關。同時,著眼長遠,繼續堅持深化改革、擴大開放不動搖,加大對5G、大數據、雲計算、人工智能、區塊鏈、工業機器人、自動化、無人機、自動駕駛等新技術的研發、應用,鼓勵發展智能工廠、智慧城市、遠程協同辦公、在線教育、醫療、生活服務等新經濟、新業態。

  嘉賓們也對疫情在中國之外的全球蔓延勢頭表示擔憂,尤其是在公共衛生體系薄弱的國家,呼籲加強疫情防控的國際合作,共同應對這一全球性挑戰。在經濟層面,應加強各國政策協調,共同維護全球供應鏈的正常運行,將疫情對經濟的影響降到最低點。

  主要觀點如下:

  一、服務業、勞動密集型行業、中小微企業、中低收入人群受衝擊最大

  《財經》雜誌執行主編張燕冬說,此次疫情,占中國經濟53.9%的服務業受衝擊最大、恢復速度也相對較慢。餐飲業一季度負增長30-40%,全年預估增速為負。房地產一季度負增長10-20%,全年預估增速在負1%到1%之間。交通運輸3月份緩慢回升,全年增速預計只有5%。

  騰訊智酷負責人王冠說,對全國網民消費行為的調查表明,外出餐飲、外出購物、院線、春運出行下滑最大,幅度50%-90%。其次是旅遊、外出鍛鍊健身、美容美髮、KTV、棋牌桌遊、線下培訓、線下看房,下滑幅度在10-50%之間。

  國泰君安首席經濟學家花長春認為,復工復產率低於預期。從數字看,規模以上企業復工率60%-90%,中小企業30-35%,但從電力數據看,復產率較低。《21世紀經濟報導》執行主編晨星也認為,截至2月底,復工情況並不理想。中國企業聯合會對中國製造業500強的調查表明,產能利用率只有六成左右,恢復正常還需要較長的時間。

  中國人壽戰略規劃部總經理羅朝暉認為,疫情對中小微企業的衝擊,超過了以往任何一次突發事件。這是由中小微企業目前的數量決定的。中國中小微企業占企業總數的90%。受疫情影響最大的幾個行業,如批發零售、餐飲住宿、物流運輸、文化旅遊,中小微企業占比相當高。其次,中小微企業一般處於供應鏈的底端,抗風險能力弱。一有風吹草動,中小微企業最先受到影響。第三,此次疫情是新中國成立以來傳播速度最快、感染範圍最廣、防控難度最大的一次突發衛生事件。第四,中國國內疫情防控在向好的態勢轉變,但海外疫情擴散加劇。如果海外疫情不能盡快有效控製,將通過全球供應鏈,反過來影響中國中小微企業的發展。

  晨星表示,從事勞動密集型行業的中低收入人群受損突出。長江商學院對一千多家企業的調查表明,從事餐飲、旅遊、住宿、生活服務等行業的企業,員工收入可以保持全薪的只占70%,16%以上的企業降薪超過50%。螞蟻金服對於2萬多家小微企業的調查表明,超過八成的小微企業、個體經營者受此次疫情影響較大,資金問題突出。復工的最大挑戰也來自於這些企業。不能正常復工,將進一步加劇中低收入人群的失業和民生問題。

  泰國正大集團資深執行副董事長謝毅說,農業、食品業是關係國計民生的大事,受疫情影響,農產品生產和銷售也面臨不少困難,傳統的產供銷模式面臨挑戰,農資、農產品運輸不暢,農民工短缺,用工難、用工貴問題突出。國家第一時間出台了很多支持性、保護性政策措施,開通綠色通道保民生、保供應、穩市場。總體上,農產品生產受到的影響較小。

  謝毅建議,疫情過後,應鼓勵通過自建和整合社會資源共建的方式,構建從種子、種植、飼料、養殖到屠宰、食品加工、物流、零售、餐飲的全產業鏈,真正做到“從農場到餐桌”的全產業鏈模式,增加農業和食品業的抗風險能力。

  二、全球供應鏈重組加速

  晨星說,疫情對全球供應鏈、產業鏈的影響,取決於企業能否順利復工復產。從目前看,科技型製造業復工率不高,存在復工復產難、訂單交付難、貸款收回難等問題。汽車行業面臨困難比較突出。武漢開發區打造的“中國車都”,是中國汽車零部件集中的區域,所受影響很大。

  花長春認為,過去幾年,降低庫存水平、提高資金使用效率,是企業的普遍做法。現在看來,在供應鏈不斷受到衝擊的情況下,庫存水平過低,稍有風吹草動就會產生很大的問題。經曆此次疫情,企業可能會考慮提高庫存水平。

  清華大華中美關係研究中心執行主任魯俊群說,此次疫情是全球供應鏈對中國企業的壓力測試。世界汽車巨頭為規避區域突發事件造成的供應鏈風險,有可能對其全球產業鏈進行重新佈局,從而推動全球汽車格局的洗牌。建議加大對全球供應鏈的課題研究,為政府決策提供數據、信息支撐;有條件的地區,區分不同的風險等級,在做好充分疫情防控的前提下開展復工復產,力爭穩定中國企業在全球供應鏈的份額和地位,減少損失;積極開展國際合作,打通自身的全球供應鏈;積極打造製造產業集群共同體,完善產業鏈。

  晨星表示,中國不是單純的生產者,也是全球最大的消費者。中國生產同時滿足國內國外市場的需求,所以,產業鏈發生轉移的情況不可能大規模發生;產業鏈的重組也將以中國為中心,緊密圍繞亞洲,亞洲在全球供應鏈、價值鏈中的地位將更加鞏固;隨著中國製造業向中高端轉型,將進一步強化亞洲經濟體與中國的產業聯繫,中國價值鏈的亞洲區域屬性將進一步加強。

  韓國現代汽車中國政府事務部部長王瑾認為,全球汽車業對中國的汽車生產力、市場購買力依存度很高。中國完善的工業生產體系、安定的政治局面、良好的營商環境,使中國製造對跨國企業產生巨大黏性。對於跨國公司來說,供應鏈轉移並非易事,要考慮當地政局、營商環境、工人素質、物流成本。即使遷移東南亞,也離不開中國供貨,中國汽車零部件企業超過十萬家,可以提供1500種產品。從長期來看,此次疫情不會影響跨國公司的全球佈局,不會導致供應鏈大幅度外遷。

  作為短期應對,跨國車企應適當保有零部件庫存、尋找替代供應商、幫助原有供應商盡快復工復產、加強質量監控,將疫情對供應鏈的影響降到最低。

  德勤中國首席經濟學家許思濤建議,中國應通過進一步擴大對外開放,應對全球供應鏈的重組,把握機遇,掌握主動。比如,進一步放寬汽車行業的股比限製,堅定外資車企在華投資的信心。

  三、數字經濟、新經濟逆勢增長

  中國銀行高級研究員李佩珈說,資本密集型、技術密集型企業受衝擊相對較小,包括計算機通信、高端製造等,其抗風險能力整體較強。衛生醫療、在線教育、遠程辦公等新業態加速成長,電商等線上消費逆勢增長。

  京東數科首席經濟學家沈建光說,此次疫情,一些新的技術得到廣泛應用甚至供不應求。比如,京東開發的疫情管控全智能APP,全面採集人口移動、交通、醫療等信息,只要發生一起病人確診,就可以通過大數據,迅速發現與他有交互的潛在風險人群,節省大量人力物力,提高防控精確度,受到政府歡迎。

  無人運貨機器人得到廣泛使用,最大程度減少人與人的接觸,降低快遞員的風險,可以直接送達小區門口。在封城和封路的農村地區,由於無人機的使用,網上銷售不降反升。此外,運用刷臉等“無觸”支付手段的無人超市、應用於疫苗管理的區塊鏈技術、服務於中小微企業的線上數字金融,都在此次疫情中展現出廣泛的應用潛力。

  王冠說,疫情期間線下消費減少,但線上消費增長明顯,一定程度上彌補了需求端損失。比如生鮮電商平台、在線視頻、手機遊戲、小說、線上培訓等。

  波士頓諮詢全球合作人周園指出,對於互聯網企業、數字化企業、醫療生產服務企業、環保企業、智能製造來說,疫情危中“蘊”機。經曆此次疫情,傳統企業將認真考慮、著手、加快數字化轉型。政府應著眼這一輪數字化、線上化帶來的機遇,精確施策,推動產業生態的整合提升。

  四、房地產行業風險加大

  建行研究院首席專家杜要忠認為,房地產市場受疫情衝擊較大,更加凸顯了房地產行業長期存在的問題,房地產行業的轉型需求更加迫切。

  杜要忠說,房地產企業面臨償債高峰期。2020年,房地產行業需要償還債券總額7598億,上半年就有3000億到期。疫情衝擊加劇了房地產開發企業資金緊張狀況,尤其是春節期間,交易量大幅下滑,現金流更加困難。

  從供給看,48個城市春節期間新開工量較疫情爆發前一週下降95%,各地項目開工復工延遲,都會對後期新增供應產生影響。需求方面,春節期間銷售大幅回落,全國30個大中城市商品房成交面積較2019年同期下滑86%,線上售房減價促銷收效甚微。

  經營性不動產遭遇嚴峻考驗,零售、寫字樓、酒店等商業地產面臨較大困難。春節本是消費旺季,本該現金流充裕的零售商業不得不關門歇業,租金成本負擔沉重。原本就供過於求的寫字樓市場,需要較長時間消化疫情帶來的影響。旅遊業停擺,使酒店、餐飲空置率大幅上升。

  住房租賃企業面臨較大的經營壓力。大多數長租企業輕資產運營,房源都是租來的。受疫情影響,退租或要求降低租金的情況是可能的,長租公寓也採取了階段性減免租金的措施,維持租賃合約、降低空置率。但是,疫情期間收入下降、運營管理成本增加,使長租企業短期內現金流明顯減少,日常運營更加困難。

  房地產行業風險向金融領域溢出的可能性值得關注。疫情爆發之前,就已存在經濟增長、財政收入過度依賴房地產行業、金融資源向房地產行業高度聚焦、居民住房杠杆率較高等問題。疫情當前,需要重點關注房地產企業面臨的資金鏈壓力、在建項目停工以及居民收入下降造成的違約風險。

  杜要忠建議,在堅持房住不炒、因城施策等基本政策方向不變的前提下,下一步要做的是優化房地產市場結構,供給端既重增量,又重存量;需求端,引導租賃需求。應加大住房金融創新力度,著力降低房地產金融領域的風險集中度,推進住房租賃資產證券化業務。

  五、穩就業的財政政策

  許思濤建議,在財政與貨幣政策之間,應更加重視財政政策的作用;財政政策的重點,應該是穩就業。長江商學院副院長周立表示讚同,認為財政政策應該以保就業、保民生為主,避免大水漫灌而造成經濟的扭曲。

  韓詠紅介紹了新加坡的做法。她說,新加坡政府最新推出的預算案,投入40億新元,首要目標是保就業。對於月薪1.6萬人民幣的中低收入員工,政府向僱主提供為期三個月、相當於薪資8%的補貼,鼓勵企業不要裁員。新加坡政府的核心思想,不是奢望可以毫髮無損地度過危機,而是如何在疫情過後成為最早、最快複蘇的國家。

  花長春說,財政用於減稅降費、疫情防控、貸款貼息方面的支出已超萬億;地方財政資金緊張,積極財政政策的空間有限。在此情況下,財政赤字突破3.5%、專項債額度提升,應該是大概率事件。不搞大水漫灌、不搞房地產,作為方向和大原則是對的,但在需求疲軟的情況下,仍有必要通過基建等方式,緩解企業困境和就業壓力。

  六、定向精準、雪中送炭的貨幣金融政策

  李佩珈分析,受疫情影響,企業融資需求不斷走弱。但是,疫情催生了線上零售、在線教育、遠程辦公等新業態加快發展。總體看,企業融資需求和信貸將呈前低後高、結構分化、逐步企穩的態勢。

  短期看,批發零售、住宿餐飲、物流運輸、旅遊等服務行業、高杠杆企業、房地產企業、中小企業的現金流面臨較大挑戰。金融政策要以緩解企業、尤其是中小企業當期債務壓力、防止現金流斷裂為重點。

  下半年,隨著逆週期調控措施陸續出台、到位,基建領域的融資需求將加快增長。除傳統基建外,信息基礎設施、公共衛生基礎設施的融資需求都會進一步增長。

  資本密集型、技術密集型企業受疫情衝擊較小,信貸需求穩定增長。醫療衛生、在線教育、遠程辦公等新業態的信貸需求逆勢增長。

  旅遊、購車、購房等居民傳統消費大幅減緩,但在線零售等新消費逆勢增長。下半年或疫情控製之後,消費領域有望出現V型反彈,但難以恢復到去年同期水平。全年消費不是特別樂觀。

  李佩珈認為,此次疫情對經濟的衝擊大於2003年非典,貨幣政策要旗幟鮮明地發揮逆週期調控的作用,最大程度降低疫情的影響,綜合運營降息、降準工具,幫助企業恢復現金流。目前形勢下,降息更為重要,要進一步調低存款基本利率。

  降息的同時還要降準。由於企業現金流增長困難,導致企業存款增長緩慢,金融機構融資能力受限,需要通過降準的方式,緩解金融機構的流動性壓力。

  貨幣政策要更加註重發揮結構性定向工具的作用,引導金融機構增加對製造業中長期貸款、民營企業中長期融資,幫助他們復工復產。通過財政貼息等方式,鼓勵金融機構出台更多的貸款展期政策,緩解中小企業當期債務償還壓力。通過專項基金等方式,多渠道擴大企業資金來源。對疫情影響較大地區的金融機構,提高不良貸款容忍度。

  羅朝暉認為,解決中小微企業融資難、融資貴的問題,必須精準施策,單一模式是解決不了的,建立多層次的融資體系是關鍵。既要有銀行,也要有小貸機構;既要有持牌機構,也需要民間融資。民間借貸是小微企業融資重要渠道,可以借助大數據等技術,加強民間融資監管,在加強監管的基礎上,適當放活民間融資。同時,進一步挖掘銀行信貸潛力,基於小微企業資質不高、抵押不足的特點,借鑒參考融資擔保民間借貸的有效做法,允許小微企業異地房地或近親不動產作為擔保等等。也可以供應鏈金融的方式,為央企、大型企業產業鏈上的小微企業提供融資支持。

  保險資金可以發揮作用,比如,認購中小微企業的金融產品;通過股權質押等方式,向中小微企業的股東提供債券融資等。大力發展“營業中斷責任險業務”,以事後經濟補償的方式,保障小微企業度過難關。

  七、疫情全球蔓延、資本市場波動加劇

  周園說,波士頓諮詢最新的一份報告,就新冠病毒的演變設想了三個場景。一是快速得到控製,除湖北以外,全國其他地區三四月份恢復正常,湖北省年中啟動疫後重建。二是長期共存,由於病毒擴散範圍廣,源頭與傳播鏈沒有確認,短期無法徹底清除,未來可能不定期再爆發。第三個可能是全球大流行。上週發佈報告的時候,這個可能性還比較低。現在看來,越來越令人擔憂。由於各國防疫衛生體系參差不齊,不能像中國政府這樣採取強有力的措施,一旦疫情爆發,將很難有效控製。

  花長春說,全球主要股市近日大幅下跌,主要原因就是疫情的海外蔓延。歐美投資者普遍擔心,沒有一個國傢俱有中國這樣的體製優勢,可以將疫情有效控製住;治療藥物半年之內難以投入臨床。如果美國、歐元區疫情蔓延,全球經濟前景將十分黯淡,這是資本市場悲觀和過激反應的主要原因。

  花長春建議,貨幣政策要對資本市場的波動有所反應。資本市場的波動,可能引發系統性、連帶性風險,連帶經濟加速下行。在此情況下,降低存款基準利率非常必要。

  八、反思與教訓

  嘉賓們認為,此次疫情有許多教訓值得總結,要將生物安全的重要性提升到戰略高度。遠大集團董事長張躍認為,由於來源不明、人傳人、無國界等特點,病毒傳播對經濟安全、國家安全的風險不容低估,未來甚至有被恐怖分子利用的可能。國家應加大力度,防患於未然,從源頭上加強防控。比如,隨著氣候變化、全球變暖,永久凍土解凍,新的病毒可能隨之釋放,風險很大。這方面,國家須提前防控。

  應對疫情的物理隔離有效但成本巨大,針對病毒的疫苗具有滯後性,跟不上病毒的變異。國家應加大科研投入,以技術手段隔斷病毒傳播。比如,瘟疫史表明,多次瘟疫都在五月份減弱或消失,證明陽光、紫外線、臭氧在控製微生物方面發揮作用。這一自然現象對我們的啟示是,在人群聚集的公共建築、大型樓宇、酒店、汽車、火車、飛機等公共環境,使用臭氧進行消毒、應用全新風通風系統,可以有效隔斷病毒的廣泛傳播。

  張燕冬認為,此次疫情表明,公共管理、公共衛生體系亟待加強、完善。與發達國家相比,中國公共衛生領域的投入仍存在很大差距。周園建議,應致力於構建更有韌性的社會體系,推動建立高效、公開、透明的應急防控、便民服務數字化治理體系。

  以下為本次研討會嘉賓觀點集萃英文版:

  BFA Academy on-line Seminar on “COVID-19 & Economic Growth”

  Executive Summary

  The BFA Academy held an on-line seminar on “COVID-19 & Economic Growth” on February 28 in Beijing, China. More than 80 delegates from international organizations, embassies of BFA Initial Countries, Board of Directors, Council of Advisors, members and partners attended this video seminar. 17 CEOs, economists and media editors made presentations on the immediate and medium-term implications of COVID-19 on economic and social development.

  Speakers agree that COVID-19 has been brought under initial control in China. Businesses are getting back to normal gradually. The long-term prospect of the Chinese economy remains positive. Implications on agriculture, services and manufacturing are short-term. Fiscal and monetary policies must be timely, proactive and targeted. Employment should be the top priority. The government needs to reach out to enterprises adversely affected by the COVID-19 through tax break, subsidy, deferral of social welfare contributions and targeted monetary policies to help them out of hardships, in particular small and medium-sized enterprises (SME). Meanwhile, China should stick to the policy direction of deepening reform and opening wider to the outside world. More inputs should go to emerging technologies such as 5G, big data, cloud computing, AI, blockchain, robots, automation, drones and pilotless driving. Emerging businesses such as smart manufacturing, smart cities, office on-line, on line education/healthcare and O2O life services should be encouraged.

  Speakers expressed deep concern over the spreading of COVID-19 outside China, particularly where public health systems are weak, calling for enhanced international cooperation fighting COVID-19 as a global challenge. Governments are urged to safeguard the global supply chain through effective policy coordination and minimize the impact on the world economy.

  1. Services, labor-intensive sectors, SMEs and low-incomers are the hardest hit

  Zhang Yandong, Managing Editor of Caijing Magazine, said that the services sector, accounting for 53.9% of China’s GDP last year, are the hardest hit and may take longer to recover than other segments of the economy. Restaurants, for example, will drop by 30-40% in Q1. Real estate will drop by 10-20% in Q1. Transport will start to pick up slowly in March, but may not exceed 5% for the whole year.

  Wang Guan, Head of Penguin Intelligence, Tencent, quoted an on-line survey of Chinese consumers, which showed a 50-90% drop in dining out, shopping, going to cinema and transport, and a 10-50% drop in tourism, fitness, hair & beauty, Karaoke, training and real estate brokerage.

  Hua Changchun, Chief Economist of Guotai Junan Securities believed that business are getting back to normal as quickly as expected. Figures show that 60-90% of large enterprises and 30-35% of SMEs have resumed businesses. But power consumption shows less-than-expected utility of production capacity. Chen Xing, Managing Editor of 21st Century Herald, concurred by quoting a survey of China Enterprise Confederation of Top-500 Chinese Manufacturers, which shows only 60% of production capacity are utilized by far.

  Luo Zhaohui, General Manager of Strategic Planning, China Life said that SMEs are adversely affected by the COVID-19 more than any other emergency in the past. This is because SMEs have accounted for 90% of enterprises in China. Unfortunately, they are heavily concentrated in the hardest-hit segments this time, such as wholesale/retail, restaurants/hotels, logistics/transport, entertainment/tourism. SMEs mostly lie at the lower end of the supply chain, more vulnerable to risks than their bigger peers. COVID-19 is by far the fastest-spreading, most contagious and hardest-to-prevent/control public health emergency in the history of PRC. Though it has been brought under initial control within China, globally it is spreading faster than expected. If not contained quickly and effectively, it may adversely affect SMEs in China through the global supply chain.

  Chen Xing said that low-incomers in labor-intensive sectors are hit hard. CKGSB has conducted a survey of more than 1000 enterprises, which shows that no more than 70% could retain the same wage level as before COVID-19 while 16% has a wage drop by 50% or more. Ant Finance made a survey of more than 20000 small and micro-enterprises, which shows that over 80% are hit hard with particular difficulties in cash flow. Their failure to resume business will only exacerbate the jobs and livelihood of low-incomers.

  Xie Yi, Senior Executive Vice President, CP Group said that agriculture and food industry, a segment of national strategic importance, is also facing hardships in production and sales. The traditional business model in production, supply and sales proves rigid and inflexible. Agricultural machines and products find it hard to ship out. Agricultural workers are in short supply. Labor costs rise. The government has unveiled a number of supportive and safeguard measures. Overall, agricultural production remains stable and reliable.

  Xie Yi suggested that the “Farm-to-Table” supply chain model be encouraged in China post-COVID-19, all the way from seeds, planting, feed, husbandry to butchering, food processing, logistics, retail and restaurant. Such a model will enhance the ability of agriculture and food industry to defuse risks in the future.

  2. Global supply chain will evolve faster than expected

  Chen Xing said implications of COVID-19 on the global supply chain depends on the progress of enterprises resuming production. For now, technology-intensive manufacturers are slow in going back to business, fulfilling orders and repaying loans. The auto industry faces hardships. The Wuhan Development Zone, China’s “Auto Capital” where more than 1000 auto parts factories are located, is adversely affected.

  Hua Chanchun said that enterprises tending to maintain low inventory levels may now consider raising the level. Given that the supply chain faces more shocks and emergencies, too low an inventory level must expose enterprises to the risk of supply chain fragility.

  Lun Junqun, Executive Director, China-US Relations Center, Tsinghua University compared the COVID-19 to a “stress test” of global supply chain on Chinese enterprises. Major auto makers may need to restructure their global supply chains to guard against future risks posed by similar emergencies. He suggested that more in-depth and extensive research be done on the global supply chain, and provide necessary data and information for government decision-makers. Provinces and cities should resume production with due COVID-19 control measures in place so as to stabilize China’s share and role in the global supply chain.

  Chen Xing said that China is not just a global producer, but also a major global consumer. China produces to meet demand both at home and abroad. It is not possible to see massive relocation out of China. Restructuring of global supply chain will be China-centered and Asia-centered. The status and role of Asia in the global supply chain and value chain will only be strengthened. As China moves up the value chain, Asian economies will only see enhanced ties with China, not less.

  Wang Jin, Director of Government Affairs, Hyundai Motor believed that the world auto industry relies highly on auto production and sales in China. China has the most comprehensive industrial system in the world, political stability and business-friendly environment, which remains highly attractive to MNCs. It is not an easy thing for MNCs to relocate its supply chain given challenges in political stability, business environment, quality and skills of workers, and logistics elsewhere. Even if they relocate to Southeast Asia, MNCs still need to rely on Chinese suppliers for raw materials and intermediates. From a long-term perspective, the COVID-19 will not result in massive relocation out of China.

  For the short run, MNCs in the auto industry should maintain a proper inventory level, search for alternative suppliers, help existing suppliers resume production, enhance quality control and minimize the implications of COVID-19 on the supply chain.

  Xu Sitao, Chief Economist, Deloitte China suggested that China respond to the global supply chain restructuring by opening wider to the outside world. For example, it may further relax shareholding restrictions on automobile joint ventures so as to reaffirm MNC’s confidence in the Chinese market.

  3. Digital Economy and New Economy grow robustly

  Li Peijia, Senior Economist, Bank of China, said that capital-intensive and technology-intensive segments are much less affected, such as IT, advanced manufacturing. Healthcare, emerging businesses such as on-line education and office line, and on-line consumption such as e-Commerce have grown robustly.

  Shen Jianguang, Chief Economist, JD Digits, said that several technologies have been widely used during the fight against COVID-19. For example, the COVID-19 Smart Control APP, developed by JD, is able to collect mobility, transportation and medical care data of city residents. Once a COVID-19 case is confirmed, the APP could quickly identify those that have been in contact with him/her and issue warnings or take necessary quarantine measures.

  Cargo/parcel delivery robots are widely used to reduce the risks on delivery boys. Drones are able to reach rural areas and villages which are closed/blocked. Face or Frictionless Payment, blockchain technology in vaccine management, digital/on-line finance serving SMEs have all demonstrated their potential this time.

  Wang Guan said that while consumption at restaurants and shops drops, on-line consumption has risen drastically. For example, on-line vegetables/fruits/seafood sales, one-line video, mobile games, e-Novels, on-line training, etc..

  Zhou Yuan, Global Partner, BCG, said that COVID-19 means growth opportunities for IT companies, digital enterprises, healthcare companies, green enterprises and smart manufacturing. Traditional enterprises may now need to think seriously about digitization, and the government should seize this opportunity and encourage enterprise to go digital and on-line through policy incentives.

  4. Growing Risks in Real Estate

  Du Yaozhong, Chief Economist, Institute of China Construction Bank, pointed out that real estate is hit hard by the COVID-19. Existing problems are further highlighted. It grows all the more imperative for the industry to transform through necessary reforms.

  Du Yaozhong said that developers are facing growing debt-servicing pressures. In 2020, the real estate sector needs to repay a total of 759.8 billion RMB Yuan in debt with 300 billion due in the first half of the year. The COVID-19 has further strained the cash flow of developers. The drastic fall during the Spring Festival has only made things worse.

  On the supply side, new construction projects in 48 cities fell by 95% during the Spring Festival, as compared to the week before. Postponement of construction after the Spring Festival will certainly impact the supply. On the demand side, sales during the Spring Festival has fallen by 86%. On-line promotion hasn’t helped much.

  Commercial properties face hardships. The Spring Festival, originally the Gold Season, has now seen closing of retail outlets instead. Office space has long been in surplus, and may take longer to digest the implications of COVID-19. Poor performance in tourism has sharply increased the vacancy rate of hotels and restaurants.

  House renting businesses suffer a lot. Most of them do not own properties and have to pay rent to owners. With the COVID-19, they will find it hard to pass on renting costs to tenants, and may even have to face defaults or requests for rent reduction. With reduced revenues and rising running costs, they will face hardships in cash flow and day-to-day operation.

  Overflow of real estate risks into financial institutions is worrying. There have been criticisms of GDP and financial revenue relying too much on real estate, financial resources concentrating too much on real estate, and household housing leverage being too high. With the COVID-19, more attention should be given to the cash flow pressures of developers, stalled construction projects and default risks of households with falling incomes.

  Du Yaozhong suggested that while the basic policy of “House is for living, not speculation” and “One City, One Rule” remains unchanged, the next step should be to optimize the real estate market. The government should encourage financial innovations to lower the risk concentration in real estate finance. REITs, for example, promises to be a good solution.

  5. Employment-oriented fiscal policy

  Xu Sitao suggested that more emphasis should be on fiscal policy, not monetary policy; the priority of fiscal policy should be given to employment, not GDP figures or infrastructure. Zhou Li, CKGSB Vice President, concurred that fiscal policy should be employment-oriented. Flooding, he said, would only distort the market.

  Han Yonghong, Deputy General Manager, Lianhe Zaobao, said that the new budget bill of Singapore gives top priority to employment. For those hiring low-incomers (under 16000 RMB monthly), the government will provide a 3-month subsidy equivalent to 8% of the salary. The purpose is to encourage them not to fire. What the Singapore Government has in mind is not to escape the COVID-19 unscathed, but to be the first and the quickest to recover after the crisis.

  Hua Chanchun said that fiscal expenditures on tax break and fee reduction, COVID-19 control and interest subsidy have exceed 1 trillion RMB. Local governments are also fiscally restrained with limited space for proactive fiscal policy. It is very likely for this year’s deficit to exceed 3.5% and the ceiling for special bonds will surely rise. It is correct for policies not to flood. It is risky to rely too much on real estate. However, with sluggish demand now depressing the market, it is necessary to resort to infrastructure investment to ease the hardships of enterprises and employment pressures.

  6. Targeted and Timely Monetary/Financial Policies

  Li Peijia said that financing needs of enterprises are dropping due to the COVID-19, but there are emerging needs from on-line commerce, on-line education and office on-line which are growing rapidly. Overall speaking, corporate financing needs and credit will pick up and stabilize gradually.

  For the short run, wholesale/retail, hotel/restaurant, logistics/transport, tourism, high-leveraged enterprises, developers and SMEs face big challenges in cash flow. Financial policies should be customized to ease their debt-servicing pressures and avoid cash flow crises.

  Into the latter half of the year, with counter-cyclical measures gradually in place, financing needs in infrastructure will grow rapidly, including railways, highways, airports and IT infrastructure, public health infrastructure.

  Capital-intensive and technology-intensive enterprises are much less affected. Their financing needs will grow steadily. Emerging and fast growing businesses such as healthcare, on-line education and office on-line will see their needs grow robustly.

  Traditional consumption such as tourism, car-buying and house-purchase will decline dramatically, but on-line consumption catches up quickly. There will be a V-shaped rebounding post-COVID-19, but may not get back to the pre-COVID-19 level. Consumption for the whole year is not optimistic.

  Li Peijia believed that COVID-19 poses a bigger threat to economy than the SARS. Monetary policies therefore must be unequivocal in playing a counter-cyclical role and minimizing the implications. Cutting interest rate and reserve requirement ratio are both important. Cutting interest rate now seems more relevant.

  Cutting reserve requirement ratio is also necessary because with cash flow difficulties, bank deposits of enterprises grow slowly, thus restraining the financing capacity of financial institutions. Cutting reserve requirement will ease liquidity pressures of financial institutions.

  Monetary policies should be more targeted, incentivizing financial institutions to increase long-term loans to manufacturers and private enterprises, helping them resume businesses and production. Governments should encourage, through interest subsidy, financial institutions to extend credit to SMEs and ease their debt-servicing pressures. Special funds could be set up to diversify sources of corporate financing. For financial institutions in areas where COVID-19 plagues, the ceiling for non-performing loans could be lifted temporarily.

  Luo Zhaohui said that there is no panacea or single model in addressing financing challenges of SMEs. A multi-layer financing mechanism is the key, which involves banks and micro-credit agencies, license-holders and informal lending. Informal lending is a most important financial vehicle for small and micro-enterprises. Big data has a big role to play in regulating informal lending. Meanwhile, banks can be more adaptive to the needs of SMEs, learning from the guarantee practice of informal lending and being flexible in collaterals. Supply chain financing is another way of helping SMEs, where SOEs and large enterprises can help SMEs on their supply chains financially.

  Insurance has a role to play as well. For example, insurance companies could purchase financial products of SMEs, provide debt financing to their shareholders, or launch insurance against business interruption risks to help SMEs out of the crisis.

  7. COVID-19 spreads quickly outside China; Capital markets plummeted

  Zhou Yuan said that the latest BCG report proposed three scenarios.

  Scenario 1: COVID-19 quickly brought under control. Excluding Hubei Province, China will get back to normal socially and economically by April. Hubei will kick off reconstruction in the middle of the year.

  Scenario 2: long-term co-existence. As the source and transmission chain are yet to be identified, plus it spreads widely, it is hard to wipe out COVID-19 in the short run. We might have to live with it for a while and risk ad hoc breakout sometime in the future.

  Scenario 3: Global Pandemic. Last week when the report was launched, such a possibility was still low. But now it seems more and more worrying as countries are diverse in public health preparedness, unlike China which could take forceful measures to bring it under control.

  Hua Chanchun said that plummeting of global capital markets in recent days are mainly out of concern over the spread of COVID-19 outside China. Investors are concerned that no other country has such organizational ability to bring COVID-19 under effective control and medication may not come to clinical use until half a year later. If COVID-19 plagues the US and the Euro Zone, global economic outlook will turn bleak. This is why capital markets are so pessimistic.

  Hua suggested that monetary policies should respond to fluctuations on capital markets because such fluctuations will incur systemic risks and downward spiraling of the entire economy. Cutting interest rate is very necessary.

  8. Lessons

  Speakers agree that there are many lessons to learn from the COVID-19. Bio-security should be placed high on a country’s agenda. Zhang Yue, Chairman and CEO, Broad Group, stressed that the risks of virus transmission to economic and national security should never be underestimated, as illustrated by the COVID-19 of unknown source, contagious to human beings and border-less. They may be used by terrorists sometime in the future. Governments should get prepared well in advance. For example, with climate change and global warming, frozen earth is being endangered and might release new viruses into the air, soil and water. This is where countries could do something by jointly fighting the climate change.

  Physical isolation proves to be effective in fighting COVID-19, but costly. Vaccines always fail to keep up with virus mutation. The solution is to cut off virus transmission where possible. History shows that many plagues weaken or disappear in May when sunshine, ultraviolet and ozone are strong enough to kill viruses. Learning from this phenomenon, we may use ozone technologies to cut off virus transmission in public buildings, hotels, office towers, trains, plains and cars.

  Zhang Yandong said that China needs to increase input in public health and improve public management. Zhou Yuan proposed to build a more resilient society, and construct an efficient, open and transparent emergency response and digital governance mechanism.

  瞭解更多

  博鼇亞洲論壇研究院成立於2001年,是論壇的重要智力支持機構。研究院的主要職能包括:在對世界經濟研究分析基礎上,提出年會主題和議題;組織起草併發表與論壇業務相關的經濟預測,及時提供與區域內重大發展有關的第一手信息,並討論研究該區域內及其同主要合作夥伴之間與經濟、貿易、商業和財政有關的重大課題;負責為論壇年會、研討會及其他專題會議提供智力資源;為會員和其他合作方提供人力資源培訓;負責建立亞洲地區乃至全球範圍內工作網絡及信息交流中心。

  本文作者:博鼇亞洲論壇研究院

  圖片來源:PEXELS

  亞洲浪潮,博鼇視野

  立足亞洲 面向世界

  傳遞論壇最新動態 促進亞洲深度合作

  全球重要對話的傳達者 亞洲共同發展的瞭望者

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